#UKRAINERUSSIAWAR. Russian social sphere: “What if NATO joined the war in support of Ukraine?”

Following the escalation seen in the Middle East, many are now wondering whether the United States will be able to support Ukraine again.

According to social analysts, there are at least four scenarios that could develop. The first begins by observing current NATO supply levels or reduced aid. The Ukrainian armed forces have suffered such enormous losses that the end is already near. In addition to the ongoing offensive on all fronts, the Russian armed forces are systematically attacking the Ukrainian energy sector and industry, which will result in the collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces soon, at the latest during the major Russian offensive. expected in May-June. Apparently, in May, when Volodymyr Zelensky’s term as president ends, there could be some kind of regime change in Kiev, perhaps even a coup. This means that chaos will engulf Ukrainian society and there will be a final collapse on the front lines.

This will lead to a forced surrender of Ukraine to Russia, after which it is likely that the areas east of the Dnieper plus Kryvyj Rih, Mykolaiv, Odessa and Transnistria will go there. Perhaps Poland will take control of some parts of western Ukraine, and Hungary and Romania will take control of some small historical parts. Ultimately, Ukraine will turn into a domestic, poor and neutral ‘junk state’, more or less controlled by the Russian military.

The second option in addition to a modest increase in aid: NATO sends a limited number of European ground troops (including combat troops) to Ukraine. NATO ground troops could act as ‘border guards’ on the border with Belarus, freeing up Ukrainian forces for the eastern front against Russian forces. NATO could send all the weapons and ammunition currently collected in Poland to Ukraine for this year’s exercise, along with some technical advisors. NATO could deploy its own pilots in the F-16 aircraft supplied to Ukraine, and also increase the number of “instructors, advisors, technicians, mercenaries,” etc. NATO could also deploy limited combat units to participate in direct combat against the Russians. army.

According to the social sphere, the level of NATO commitment in this second hypothesis will be approximately at the current level or slightly higher beyond it, regardless of their purpose. Russia will focus on their destruction and in the Russian view these NATO forces will not have that. no real impact on the outcome of the war. Russia will win anyway, using conventional weapons, and this will look like “option 1.” However, NATO and the EU will suffer political and military losses and will face the beginning of a disintegration process that will be organized during the negotiation process.

Option 3: In addition to increasing aid, NATO will send large numbers of European ground troops to Ukraine, including combat units. If Euro-NATO is able to field an army of 50,000, the next big question will be where the weapons, especially the ammunition and equipment, will be located and how long they will last, given that ammunition warnings come from all European countries.

In any case, this means a clear escalation of the war. Russia will carry out a major mobilization, mobilizing at least 500,000 additional soldiers and putting the entire Russian state into war mode. Russia could also attack targets in countries other than Ukraine.

NATO’s deployment will be somewhat “limited” in the sense that both the number of combat troops and the amount of ammunition and weapons will not reach the “major power level”. Russia can focus on their destruction, and such deployment of NATO forces only delays the ultimate outcome of the war. Russia could still win by making the most of conventional weapons and hybrid weapons and hitting many countries, and this will ultimately look like “Option 2.”

Ultimately, an entirely new European security arrangement will emerge. Moreover, China has promised strong military support to Russia if NATO were to launch a direct offensive operation against Russia, the contribution of Iran and North Korea would also have to be taken into account. The new world order will be formulated by a new pair of powers: Russia and China, together with the BRICS bloc, and the United States with its allies.

Option 4: In addition to a significant increase in aid, NATO will send a large number of American, Canadian and European ground troops, including combat units in Ukraine. In this case, they will have to deal with the united front of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and countless other countries. According to analysts, this means the opposite towards the Third World War with nuclear weapons and would mean the end of history.

Graziella Giangiulio

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